Beginners Luck

There are people out there making ten times more money, with half the IQ, simply because they’re too oblivious to doubt themselves. Trading has an uncanny way of shaking down those who sit in the middle ground—people who have just enough knowledge to overthink but not enough to consistently thrive. It’s like a funnel: on one end, you have the absolute beginners, the ones who jump in with no hesitation, no concept of risk, and no idea about probability, yet they somehow make money. Beginner’s luck, right? They’re so unbothered by fear or strategy that they end up making wins almost by accident. On the other end of the spectrum, you have the seasoned traders—battle-hardened by losses, forged by failure, and aware of every market nuance. They know what it takes, but that knowledge comes with scars and countless hours of grinding through learning.

But right in the middle, that’s where trading plays its cruelest trick. These are the folks who’ve watched a few videos, read a couple of articles, maybe had some early success. They’re cautious, but they don’t fully understand the complexity. They’re smart enough to have doubts but not wise enough to know what’s worth doubting.